As we reported just yesterday, new COVID-19 cases are surging in Los Angeles, with more than 20,000 new cases reported on December 30, a number higher than at any time since last winter’s post-holiday peak.
But what’s interesting beyond the raw case counts, increasing case rates, and test positivity (which hit 21% yesterday) is that more new data is coming in now as well, and we have some new information about how the Omicron variant is moving in, which groups are being hardest hit, vaccine effectiveness, and more…all of which were outlined in a briefing yesterday by LA County Director of Public Health Dr. Barbara Ferrer.
First of all, Ferrer reported that (as we also reported yesterday), both new cases and case rates (the average number of new cases pers 100,000 residents, shown in the green line below) are soaring at the moment. But while hospitalizations have also begun increasing (orange line below), the curve is not yet as steep as it is for new cases, indicating that people may not be getting quite as sick this time around as they have during past surges. (Or, at least, not so far…since hospitalizations do tend to lag a week or two behind new case reports.) Also, at least the moment, daily death rates have remained quite flat so far (though they, too, tend to lag behind both case reports and hospitalizations).
Also, Ferrer reported, while hospitalizations are starting to rise, they’re still nowhere near the peaks they reached last winter.
Meanwhile, Ferrer said, while the new Omicron variant (yellow in the bar chart below) is moving in quickly, it is “not replacing Delta [variant] cases, but adding to them.” So Delta, which so far still seems to cause more serious illness than Omicron, is still very much with us.
But this could change in the near future, Ferrer reported, noting that while Omicron accounts for 54% of cases in California at the moment, there are other parts of the country, including New York City (which reported more than 60,000 new COVID-19 cases yesterday), where Omicron has indeed become quite dominant, as shown below.
Also, Ferrer said that it’s interesting to note that, for the first time, the current surge seems to be hitting the 18-49 age group nearly three times harder than other age groups. Although there is still no definitive information on what could be causing this phenomenon, Ferrer said it may be because this age group tends to spend more time than other age groups out and about for both work and recreation, creating increased opportunities for exposure.
And Ferrer said that it’s important to note that increases in cases are being seen in both unvaccinated and vaccinated populations, though cases in unvaccinated individuals continue to significantly outpace cases in those who are vaccinated, and – especially – those who are both fully vaccinated and have had booster shots.
And the differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated populations is even more stark when looking at hospitalizations, where hospitalization rates for the unvaccinated are rising sharply while hospitalization rates for vaccinated individuals are still quite flat.
Also among hospitalizations, it’s still older groups who are proving to be most vulnerable…though Ferrer reported that there has also been a small uptick recently in hospitalizations among children 0-4 years old (red line in the graph below), who definitely can be affected by the virus.
And, finally, death rates, too, still show a huge (and increasing) gap between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals.
Ferrer also reported some fairly good news about vaccinations in LA County, where 67% of residents ages five and over are now fully vaccinated, and where among residents 65 and older (which continue to remain the most vulnerable age group), 97% have had at least one vaccine dose, and 89% are fully vaccinated.
Ferrer also had some good news on the testing front, which provides another good tool for identifying COVID-19 infections and helping people know when to isolate and/or quarantine to help prevent spreading the virus. Ferrer reported that with the new year looming, 1.4 million at-home COVID test kits will be distributed to students at Los Angeles public and charter schools in early January, so they can have a baseline test before returning to school after winter break. Also, the LA County Department of Public Health has distributed 750,000 more test kits to 350 community based organizations in LA County, to distribute to people in “high need” communities.
Finally, to help keep people safe during the next couple of days of New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day celebrations, when “the risk of infections is higher than ever before,” Ferrer advised residents to keep holiday gatherings small and outside when possible, make sure all attendees are fully vaccinated and boosted, avoid large, crowded events (or perhaps view things like fireworks from a distance), and – for those at highest risks of infection – possibly skipping group festivities altogether.
And after the holiday parties, Ferrer said, it will still be important to get vaccinated and/or boosted if you haven’t already, continue testing regularly to identify potential infections as soon as possible, and not only wear masks, but upgrade from cloth masks to those – like surgical masks, KN 95 and N 95 masks – that are made of multiple layers of non-woven material.
In the end, Ferrer said she has “no crystal ball for 2022,” so won’t make any predictions for how the pandemic will proceed in the new year, but she said we should trust the CDC’s advice, that we do now have good tools (such as vaccines, tests, masks, and new drugs to treat the virus), and that we “will continue to benefit from the brilliance” of these advances moving forward.
And Ferrer’s sentiments were echoed by LA County Supervisor Holly Mitchell, who hosted yesterday’s presentation. Mitchell agreed with Ferrer’s closing sentiments and added that “we can determine what 2022 will look like in large part based on our behavior now and our continued behavior” into the new year.
Finally, just this morning, we also saw a somewhat hopeful message in this story from the Washington Post, which reported today that “the rapid surge of omicron infections in the United States may be relatively brief, measured in weeks rather than months.”
According to the story:
“The idea of a rapid peak and swift decline has a precedent in South Africa, the country that revealed the presence of omicron in late November. Cases there spiked quickly and then dropped with unexpected speed after only a modest rise in hospitalizations. An especially transmissible virus tends to run out of human fuel — the susceptible portion of the population — quickly.
Some forecasts suggest coronavirus infections could peak by mid-January.
“Omicron will likely be quick. It won’t be easy, but it will be quick. Come the early spring, a lot of people will have experienced COVID,” William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said in an email Thursday.”
At the same time, however, while the report does focus on this good news, it also reminds readers that the COVID-19 trajectory has been unpredictable in the past, and the current surge could very likely take some unexpected turns. “I’m not a betting person on this thing, ever,” said Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman in the story.
